Evaluating Approaches to Dealing with Uncertainty in Environmental Assessment

Uncertainty of environmental impacts is a major factor limiting the effectiveness of environmental assessment (EA) and is likely to increase in importance with the introduction of mandatory Strategic EA in the EU. A synthesis and evaluation of approaches to dealing with uncertainty was found to be lacking in the literature. Approaches to dealing with uncertainty in EA were identified from literature, categorised and evaluated for a range of types of sources of uncertainty in air quality assessment. Synergies, complementarities and demand for further research were identified through SWOT analysis. Approaches were found to be available to address all types of uncertainty source, although use of these was found lacking in current practice in recent UK-based Environmental Statements. Many approaches are compatible and complementary, and opportunities exist to widen their application.